Academy Award Predictions

hell-or-high-water

Alright, so the Academy Awards are this Sunday, and below I have chosen my predictions for the winners of each and every award. I have listed the nominees for each award, and my pick for each category will be in bold.

 

Best Visual Effects

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

 

Best Costume Design

Allied

Fantastic Beats and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

 

Best Makeup and Hair

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad

 

Best Original Song

Audition (The Fools Who Dream)- La La Land

Can’t Stop the Feeling- Trolls

City of Stars- La La Land

The Empty Chair- Jim: The James Foley Story

How Far I’ll Go- Moana

 

Best Original Score

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Passengers

 

Best Production Design

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Passengers

 

Best Sound Mixing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

 

Best Sound Editing

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

 

Best Film Editing

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

 

Best Foreign Language Film

A Man Called Ove

Land of Mine

Tanna

The Salesman

Toni Erdmann

 

Best Live Action Short Film

Ennemis Interieurs

La Femme et le TGV

Silent Nights

Sing

Timecode

 

Best Documentary Short Subject

4.1 Miles

Extremis

Joe’s Violin

Watani: My Homeland

The White Helmets

 

Best Documentary Feature

13th

Fire at Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J.: Made in America

 

Best Cinematography

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

 

Best Original Screenplay

20th Century Women

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures

Lion

Moonlight

 

Best Animated Short

Blind Vaysha

Borrowed Time

Pear Cider and Cigarettes

Pearl

Piper

 

Best Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

 

Best Director

La La Land, Damien Chazelle

Hacksaw Ridge, Mel Gibson

Moonlight, Barry Jenkins

Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan

Arrival, Denis Villeneuve

 

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis, “Fences”

Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”

Nicole Kidman, “Lion”

Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”

Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”

 

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”

Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”

Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”

Dev Patel, “Lion”

Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”

 

Best Lead Actress

Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”

Ruth Negga, “Loving”

Natalie Portman, “Jackie”

Emma Stone, “La La Land”

Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

 

Best Lead Actor

Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”

Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”

Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”

Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”

Denzel Washington, “Fences”

 

Best Picture

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

 

Alright, so those are my picks in every category for the Academy Awards this Sunday. Below, I will give some possible upset picks that I think may have a chance of snatching the Oscar away from some of the winners I predicted above.

 

Best Original Song- In this category I think there is a possibility that the two La La Land songs may cancel each other out, in which case I think the next logical choice would be “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana. Upset Probability: 35%

Best Documentary Feature- This is actually one of the categories where I hope my prediction is wrong. I would love to see 13th win this Oscar. Ava Duvernay did such a fantastic job on this documentary, and it is well deserving of the award. I just believe O.J. Made In America is the easy choice for the Academy, and I believe they will take it. Upset Probability: 40%

Best Adapted Screenplay- I think if any movie has a shot at taking this award away from Moonlight, it will be Arrival. It is such a smart, well written sci-fi film, and the screenplay has been deservedly praised. However, I still believe this is Moonlight’s award to lose. Upset Probability: 15%

Best Animated Feature- This is a tough one. Zootopia has won most of the awards in this category so far during the award season, but Kubo has been picking up steam here as of late, and Moana is another highly successful Disney movie. Both films have a decent shot of nabbing this from Zootopia, but we will just have to wait and see. Upset Probability: 50%

Best Director- Let’s be honest, this award is Chazelle’s to lose at this point. He just has too much steam built up this close to the big night. However, Barry Jenkins has also been getting a lot more buzz lately, and deservedly so because Moonlight is a brilliant and beautifully made film. I still think that Chazelle takes the statue, but don’t be shocked if Jenkins’ name gets called instead. Upset Probability: 25%

Best Lead Actress- This is difficult for me because I have been a big fan of Emma Stone ever since I first saw her in Superbad. I think she is a very good actress, and I hope she wins an Oscar someday, and I believe she will on Sunday. However, I don’t really want her to. Don’t get me wrong, she does a really good job in La La Land, but it wasn’t mind-blowing. Isabelle Huppert on the other hand, was fantastic in Elle. The two performances just aren’t on the same level in my opinion. However, Emma Stone has a full head of steam at this point, and I don’t really see the Academy giving it to someone else now. Upset Probability: 30%

Best Lead Actor- If you had asked me about a month ago who I thought was going to win this award, I would have said Casey Affleck without much hesitation. How quickly things can change. Denzel Washington started getting more and more buzz slowly but surely, reaching a new level when he won the SAG Award a couple weeks ago. That is a huge predictor in who will win the Oscar, when viewed historically. Add to that the fact that this controversy surrounding Affleck has undoubtedly damaged his chances with some voters, merited or not, and Denzel is now the clear frontrunner. However, I still believe there is a chance that Casey Affleck could steal this right back from Denzel. He was the clear favorite for the majority of the award season, and he really does give a great performance in Manchester by the Sea. It is more subdued than Washington’s for sure, but still a great performance. Upset Probability: 40%

Best Picture- Again, this is a category where my heart and my head disagree. My head says La La Land, but my heart says Hell or High Water. Now don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Hell or High Water stands a chance in hell of winning, but it was my favorite movie out of all the nominees. The one I actually think has a chance of beating La La Land is Moonlight. It is such a beautiful film, and it has been getting more and more traction lately, especially from the pockets of people out there that hate La La Land. I am not one of those people, I liked La La Land quite a bit, but it wasn’t my favorite movie. That being said, I still believe that it will be a steep uphill battle for anything, even Moonlight, to take this award away from La La Land at this point. Upset Probability: 15%

Alright everyone, that is all I have for you today. Please feel free to leave a comment or find me on Twitter @Redfield5489 and let me know your thoughts.

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